The perfect storm: macroeconomics, markets and money
Xochitl Calderón
December 18, 2025
This year, pymes have been simultaneously hit by cost pressures and tightening financing conditions, while rising trade tensions and tariffs have hit them hard.
Through our global network, we have seen how these challenges have played out differently in each region and sector.
But in the midst of disruption, one skill stands out: adaptability.
Successful pymes are those that have transformed these challenges into a catalyst for smarter, bolder and more strategic growth.
In the first of a two-part series looking back to 2025, we speak to leaders across our network to discover how funding conditions, global trade frictions and geopolitical shifts have collided to redefine the pymes landscape this year.
The biggest challenges of 2025
Rising trade tensions, tariffs and geopolitical shifts have dominated the headlines this year.
In the United States, uncertainty has been the dominant tone.
«2025 has been an unprecedented year. Companies have been quick to understand changes in tariffs, changes in immigration policy and federal spending cuts,” explains Fred Kostecki, managing partner in St. Louis of the firm RubinBrown, a member of the US network.
“At first, the impact was paralyzing, as pymes struggled to understand where the policies would go. Then came the rush to build up stocks before tariff deadlines expired. “Margins were affected and some sectors experienced a reduction in labor due to stricter immigration policies.”
According to Lloyd, Canada presents a more optimistic situation.
“While cross-border tariffs and rising costs have put pressure on cash flow, digitally mature pymes with flexible financing strategies have turned volatility into an opportunity. “Leveraging automation, innovative financing models and market agility, these companies are expanding into new niches and reinvesting to build their capacity and resilience.”
Las pymes frente a la disrupción
This year's trade upheaval and supply chain disruption demanded faster decisions and greater resilience.
For German Pymes, especially those in the automotive sector, the persistent supply chain disruption has been a hard blow.
«Semiconductor shortages, rising raw material costs and geopolitical bottlenecks have affected both production and margins. Smaller suppliers have been the most affected, being forced to absorb the increase in costs that they cannot pass on,” explains Mr Groening.
“And as global supply chains shift away from Asia and pressure to offshore production increases, pymes are forced to rapidly review their sourcing strategies, often without the capital or capacity to keep up. “Some are turning to digital tools and regional sourcing, but the main problem is large-scale operational disruption.”
Canadian Pymes are fighting a different battle. The disruptive factor here is not a lack of parts, but the impact of tariffs, Lloyd says.
“Changes in tariffs and unpredictable trade policies have created uncertainty across the board, from input costs to pricing decisions. Cash flow forecasting has become a guess, long-term investment is stagnating and smaller businesses have been forced into a defensive posture.
"In Canada, uncertainty has become the biggest risk to the supply chain."
Across Latin America, physical supply chain disruptions have been brief and manageable, but the strategic consequences are real.
“With changes in business alignments and fluctuating costs, the long-term planning horizon has shortened dramatically. Pymes continue to operate, but without trust,” says Aguilar.
Poland adds another angle to the story: weak global demand and regional frictions.
“The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remained below 50 for much of 2025, exports faced weak external demand and the strong zloty reduced competitiveness in several sectors,” says Dr Sztuba.
«Pymes walked a tightrope, reducing capital expenditure linked to euro zone demand and, at the same time, promoting new sales channels and product lines. And, despite the uncertainty, banking surveys showed an increase in SME demand for both investment and working capital loans, indicating ambition under caution.”
Diversification versus global decline
Despite geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and rising domestic costs that have slowed internationalization across Europe this year, Germany stands out.
«German pymes are taking advantage of opportunities in new markets, diversifying their business models and advancing globally to remain competitive. Selective diversification out of Europe continues, but the real story is strategic expansion, not withdrawal,” says Mr. Groening.
Throughout Latin America, and in Mexico in particular, the lack of domestic economic growth is pushing companies abroad, Aguilar explains.
«Technology companies and startups already default to regional and/or international strategies, but now even traditional SMEs are increasingly looking abroad, with the United States, Spain and other Latin American territories being the main objectives. For many, international expansion is not optional, it is the only way to grow.
India is moving in a similar direction, but more quickly.
SMEs are rapidly diversifying in response to geopolitical changes, policy support and declining Western demand amid rising tariffs, says Mr Sethi.
“Markets such as the United Arab Emirates, China, Vietnam, Japan and Nigeria are gaining ground. “New trade agreements and digital tools allow companies to reach foreign buyers directly, while the Export Promotion Mission is boosting trade finance, branding and global reach, accelerating their international presence.”
Africa, however, tells a different story. Here, internal consolidation has been the priority.
“Companies are strengthening domestic supply chains, creating local partnerships and focusing on operational stability before looking abroad,” says Zaari.
Canadian pymes face an even more difficult dilemma.
Volatile tariffs and changes in trade policies have disrupted planning, inflated costs and created a cloud of uncertainty around cross-border trade.
Lloyd notes: “This unpredictability makes long-term investing risky and cash flow difficult to forecast. Smaller companies, which lack the buffers of big companies, are responding cautiously: slowing hiring, delaying expansion and approaching global markets with much more hesitation.
“However, another narrative is emerging among high-performing companies, where diversification is the new norm. Digitally mature pymes are expanding globally and online, mixing goods, services and innovation to break free from North American volatility.
Macroeconomics is not everything
Pymes have not only had to deal with the macroeconomy this year.
The artificial intelligence, talent and skills landscape is evolving rapidly, which is leaving a real mark on businesses.
In the second part of this series, we will explore how these forces have redefined what it takes for pymes to compete and grow.
Article written with contributions from:
Fred Kostecki
Managing partner
RubinBrown
Ben Lloyd
CEO
Baker Tilly in Canada
Manuel Aguilar
Managing partner
Baker Tilly in Mexico
Laure Mounier
CEO
Baker Tilly in France
Ralf Groening
Managing partner
Baker Tilly in Germany
Ajay Sethi
Managing partner
Baker Tilly ASA in India
Wojciech Sztuba
Managing partner
TPA Poland
Chakib Zaari
Managing partner
Baker Tilly in Morocco
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